Snow fans have been clamoring for snow!  We hear you on Facebook, Twitter and email.  Those that are not fans of the real cold are counting the days to spring.

Yes, snow fans, the pattern is looking more favorable (as favorable as it can get with a strong el nino).  As you can see from the image above we’ll have more cold air in place as we head into the new week.

THE FIRST SYSTEM…

The first system we deal with is an Alberta Clipper. A vigorous area of low pressure moving through the Northeast. The problem for southern New England is that it is too far north to be a snow producer for us.  The weak storm will develop into a rather strong storm to our north and east and act as a blocking mechanism for a good portion of next week.  In other words, it switches up the pattern a bit unlike the last few weeks.

An Alberta Clipper goes by to our north, but too far north for a big burst of snow here.  Best chance of a snowstorm from this is in Maine.

The European model (ECMWF) as of Saturday 00z. A LOT can change before next week, but we’re giving you a “First Alert” heads up on the week ahead.

ANOTHER STORM THREAT?

A southern storm will get going but model data is very split on weather it stays south or gets picked up by the jet and becomes a coastal storm threat by Friday/Saturday (see above)

Of course, we will keep you posted as new data comes in.  Follow me on Twitter and Facebook for the latest details.

Hanukkah has begun and we are just 3 weeks away from the Christmas holiday.  Usually, the holidays has people thinking hot cocoa, snow and lighting a good fire in the fireplace.  Instead, as we move deeper into December our warmer than average fall continues.

We’re looking at a set up this weekend that will be ‘almost’ perfect to get record breaking warmth in here.  “Almost” is only because our wind direction may not be THE most optimal for the warmest temperatures, but we’ll be pretty darn toasty for December standards.

Temps will climb into the 50s for the remainder of the week. By the weekend, a large high will be situated off of the coast and a cold front slicing through the mid-section of the country.  This is a good set up to send warmth our way.

60-65 is likely on Sunday and into the 60s  with increasing rain chances on Monday.  The above graph shows possible temps going into Monday.  The records this weekend including Monday are 60 degrees inland.

There are some signs of decent cool downs here and there, but overall, no sign of the pattern changing in December.  If we can get a storm to meet up with one of these cool downs, we could be in business for a little winter.. so far, no luck.

Snow fans will have to hold on..

Last year at this time we were tracking a pretty big storm for the busiest travel day of the year (the Wednesday before Thanksgiving).  See my my blog post from last year when we were forecasting over a half of a foot of snow on the busy travel day.

This year, our above average pattern continues to keep us storm free.

What to expect this week:   First a cool down on Monday and Tuesday.  Cold highs only in the low 40’s.

Wednesday-Friday:  Temps will begin to climb.  In fact, by Friday some towns will be close to 60 degrees for highs.  If you’re planning on being out during the busy shopping day it looks downright pleasant.  Check out the jet stream, it cuts well to the north and west by Friday.  That means we’ll see warmer than average temperatures.  By Friday our average high temperature should be right around 47 degrees.  We’re forecasting temps closer toward 60.

Air Travel:  If you’re traveling by air, you can expect a good chunk of the country to be on the quiet side.  Check out some of the connecting hub forecasts below.

If you’re traveling for the holiday weekend, make it a safe one!

A quick post today regarding the photo I posted yesterday.   With Halloween in the rear view mirror, daylight saving time ending and winter looming, people are clearly clamoring to squeeze out as much fall as possible.

This photo above received 2,083 views on Twitter.  The same photo on Facebook garnered 7,044 views (between shares and views on my page Facebook.com/WeatherDarrenSweeney.

My point here, people (sans skiers) are hoping to keep the warmer weather around.  If you like warmth, November looks to be toasty.  Yes, I see some shots of cold here and there, but overall, the trend is for a more warmth than cold.  Check out my previous post Warm November.

It’s still too early to see how the winter will shape up, but El Nino will keep things interesting as the cold air continues to build at the top of the globe and starts heading south.  Stay tuned.

These are 850 MB temp anomalies. 850 temps are a good indication of what surface temps could be like. The red means well above average.

It certainly has been a nice fall so far.  We’ve had a couple of very chilly days, but overall we have been sitting average or above since fall began.

With Halloween and November starting this weekend, a lot of people are thinking winter.  Not so fast!

The map above shows us the start of November and it’s looking WARM.  High pressure sitting in the perfect location to pump in the warm air means we’ll be going well above average.

As November starts our average high temperatures drop steadily into the 50s and through the 40s.  By the end of the month our average high temps are in the lower to middle 40s.

A closer view (the map below) shows one more close up example of possible highs next Wednesday. Mid to upper 60s.  I would not be surprised to see 70s next week around here.

Despite turning the clocks back and that earlier sunset, lets not count autumn out just yet.

For those of you who say we go from winter to summer, this pattern ahead will provide PLENTY of cool spring weathe.

Hang on to your spring jackets (heavier ones, too) !

The pattern that has been with us most of the winter, is setting up shop (again). Warm air locked out west, colder air to the east.

How long will it last? Right now it looks like we’re going to see this pattern through early to even mid May. There will be breaks of warmth of course, but overall, it’s going to be a slow process.

Things of the positives. We escape major flooding from fast snowmelt up north. We catch a break before the summer warmth.. trying to find the silver linings here.

The image below shows Saturday (just as an example) how how well below average we will be. Where you see the orange and red, that’s where the spring warmth is.

This graphic shows Saturday’s below avg temps, but this is a common map we’ll see through early to mid May.

The warmer air has been locked out west since February. The jet stream looks to flip as we head into next week.

Many people are wondering, where the heck is spring?  Temps have been below normal for weeks.  As we head into next week the average high temperature is supposed to be 56 or 57 degrees.  We’ll spend a few days in the 40s!

First things first:  This week will feature several rain chances, along with cold high pressure to our north funneling in cold air.  That means temps will struggle through the 40s through mid-week.

The hope for warmer temps: Take a look at the image below, that is one computer model showing highs in the 60s by next Tuesday.  There is other data that brings in 70s to near 80 degrees.  That’s still questionable, but the bottom line is the pattern looks to flip in our favor next week in terms of warmth.

Despite the fact we have been hoping for warmth, this spring (so far) has been good for a slow meltdown of the snowpack.  There is still a lot of snow to melt up north, but so far the rivers are handling the meltdown.

Patience is key as we head into this week with the prolonged period of showers and cool temps.

This map shows temps on next Tuesday afternoon in the 60s.

Cold air to the north may dry up some of the snow, causing a sharp cut off between a snowy day (south of us) to more nuisance snow (north) Something we will have to watch

Tuesday PM Update:  LOTS of questions (and rightly so) on what’s to come for the next 48 hours.  It’s a tough one, as they often times are this time of year.  Especially with the way the cold has been winning out since January (When is the last time we saw a rain drop?  I can’t remember.

This evening:  Snow begins as early as 4PM western CT. Snowing pretty much statewide by 6PM.

Snow comes down moderate to even heavy at times through the evening.Between 8 and 10 (or so) we will start to see a mix to sleet, freezing rain across the state.

Closer to midnight and beyond we see the warmer air start to work in (slowly, first at cloud level and then close to the surface).

By morning, some delays are possible (esp. northern CT) but temps will slowly rise overnight.

THE GOOD NEWS IS.. we’re not expecting heavy rain with this, the heaviest of the precip will fall as snow/ice (better than rain at this point).

By morning temps rising through the low 30s.  We briefly could warm into the low 40s tomorrow, mainly at the shore.

Here’s where it gets interesting:  Colder air will start to work in from the north through the day and through Wednesday evening.  At the same time, moisture is going to work along a stalled front to our south.

The big question is, does the cold dense dry air win out and keep most of the next batch of moisture to the south?

At this point, some additional accumulation is possible on Thursday with snow, but look at the image below, a very sharp cut off between several inches of accumulation across Long Island, compared to some along the shore, little in northern CT.

That is the big detail that needs to be worked out.

Some snow re-develops Thursday morning into the afternoon.
How much is still in question.  At this point, more along the shore (couple of inches?)  But we run a very fine line between a pretty snowy day and not much happening.

The breakdown:
This evening: Snow, to ice, to some rain drops by morning (but not heavy).  2-4″ of accumulation this evening.

Wednesday: a lull, perhaps turning a little milder, in the 30s (40s shore ?)

Wednesday evening/overnight: Turning colder

Thursday AM into the afternoon: The possibility of snow developing (again) some accumulation is possible, especially southern CT.   This is what we’ll be fine tuning as we move forward.

A front settling to our south will act as the focus point for several rounds of snow

This set up is not the norm. The best I can compare this to is when a front stalls during the summer and we get a couple of days of on and off rain, some heavier bouts, some lighter.

Here’s the breakdown:

Today: A few periods of light snow or flurries (especially mid to late morning). Coating, inch? possible.
Tonight/Sunday: Same deal, inch or two likely, some town northern CT pick up 3″.
 Sunday night/Monday: A more impressive batch of moisture moves in, several inches of snow is likely. Right now, it appears the heaviest band will settle north of here (foot plus amounts) but it’s close by, Western Mass.
Still, light to moderate snow is possible for much of the day, which could mean another day of interrupted school and travel.  There could be ice mixing in at the shore as some warmer air tries to move in.
Several inches falling through the day (could top 6″ especially northern CT) doesn’t mean a big blockbuster storm, but we’re starting to ‘inch’ our way to roof concerns, even bigger parking problems in the cities and towns with massive snow piles.

Keep in mind, we’re going to have to keep a running tally.. if we get an inch saturday, couple Sunday and 6 ish Monday, add it all up and it’s impressive nonetheless (see map).

This is total snowfall after several rounds of snow, the heaviest coming late Sunday night into Monday

I simply typed in Blizzard of 2015 snowfall forecast, and this is what I got. No wonder the public is so confused.

While we catch a breather from our “blizzard” (and I only put it in quotes because some of us saw one, some of us did not), it’s time to start getting the word out on how to get a reliable forecast (cutting through the clutter).

MANY folks in CT are upset that we did not see 30 inches of snow.  Some are happy.  Some DID see 30″ of snow.

Social media went nuts (as usual) on the fact huge snow numbers that were being tossed around (even by the National Weather Service offices).   Who do you trust?

My best advice is to find someone that you can rely on (locally) that you know gives you accurate information.  This storm was NOT easy to forecast, although if you saw the forecasts from everyone it looked like a “lock”.  Some were irresponsible by broadcasting really huge numbers without context.  If you put out huge numbers, you should also explain the forecast challenges so people are aware.

I worked on Sunday morning and saw all of the numbers coming in. I wasn’t “sold” on the 30 inch snowstorm from NYC to Boston. I was sold on SOMEONE getting 30″‘s.  We HAD to get that information out there so people were prepared, but I specifically said the following:

For example:  My blog said this on Sunday after looking at the latest data (this was also my message on the air).

“Here’s the issue: I’m all about being honest and as clear as possible on social media, when you have a powerful storm they tend to be tightly wound up off the coast. Arctic air also helps to create a sharp “cut off” of heavy snow to little snow. We also have historically had to deal with “dry slots” of air wrapping into the storm here in southern New England cutting down on snow totals.

That being said, the storm has not even taken shape yet and won’t hit the coast until tomorrow morning. Until then we utilize the best data possible. Any slight deviation east or west will make a difference.”

It was the forecast as I saw it.  It goes back to the fact that weather is not an exact science.  Some treat it as it is… even some meteorologists treat it as such, which in my opinion isn’t responsible to the public.

I put that disclaimer on my forecast, not as an insurance policy, I did it because based on my experience, I have seen this happen before and there were some signals in the data that this was going to be the case.  I am NOT saying I am always right and I’ll be the first to say I’ve blown a forecast before. I’m not ashamed.  It happens.  The fact of the matter is, we get it right more than we get it wrong.   I got a few emails about how we nailed Saturday’s storm, but I got MANY responses about Tuesday not being right. It’s just like at a restaurant.  You get a bad meal or service and you complain.  Most of the time when you leave happy, you say nothing.  It’s the same thing with TV weather forecasting.

Find a couple of local people you trust, follow their blogs, follow their thoughts on Twitter and Facebook and you will be just fine.

The clutter on social media isn’t going to go away.  It’s going to get worse.  The irresponsible broadcasting by some isn’t going to disappear either (one local forecaster put a map on the air that advertised places like Middletown CT were going to get over 40 inches).  What?  It’s now up to YOU to cut through it all by cutting out the fat (per se) by only looking for the best sources.

It’s unfortunate that YOU the consumer have to do this, but it’s the only way.  EVERYONE has the ability to post forecasts (some of the these alarmist sites that look professional are run by 13 year olds).

Onto the next storm (which could impact Superbowl Sunday night and Monday .. btw.  more to come.

Remember to click wisely and stay informed.  it’s the only thing you can do when severe weather happens.

Darren