Cold air to the north may dry up some of the snow, causing a sharp cut off between a snowy day (south of us) to more nuisance snow (north) Something we will have to watch

Tuesday PM Update:  LOTS of questions (and rightly so) on what’s to come for the next 48 hours.  It’s a tough one, as they often times are this time of year.  Especially with the way the cold has been winning out since January (When is the last time we saw a rain drop?  I can’t remember.

This evening:  Snow begins as early as 4PM western CT. Snowing pretty much statewide by 6PM.

Snow comes down moderate to even heavy at times through the evening.Between 8 and 10 (or so) we will start to see a mix to sleet, freezing rain across the state.

Closer to midnight and beyond we see the warmer air start to work in (slowly, first at cloud level and then close to the surface).

By morning, some delays are possible (esp. northern CT) but temps will slowly rise overnight.

THE GOOD NEWS IS.. we’re not expecting heavy rain with this, the heaviest of the precip will fall as snow/ice (better than rain at this point).

By morning temps rising through the low 30s.  We briefly could warm into the low 40s tomorrow, mainly at the shore.

Here’s where it gets interesting:  Colder air will start to work in from the north through the day and through Wednesday evening.  At the same time, moisture is going to work along a stalled front to our south.

The big question is, does the cold dense dry air win out and keep most of the next batch of moisture to the south?

At this point, some additional accumulation is possible on Thursday with snow, but look at the image below, a very sharp cut off between several inches of accumulation across Long Island, compared to some along the shore, little in northern CT.

That is the big detail that needs to be worked out.

Some snow re-develops Thursday morning into the afternoon.
How much is still in question.  At this point, more along the shore (couple of inches?)  But we run a very fine line between a pretty snowy day and not much happening.

The breakdown:
This evening: Snow, to ice, to some rain drops by morning (but not heavy).  2-4″ of accumulation this evening.

Wednesday: a lull, perhaps turning a little milder, in the 30s (40s shore ?)

Wednesday evening/overnight: Turning colder

Thursday AM into the afternoon: The possibility of snow developing (again) some accumulation is possible, especially southern CT.   This is what we’ll be fine tuning as we move forward.