Here are the latest details on the storm:

The storm will be a bust in places like NYC (but we said all along there was going to be a SHARP cut off in the snow and that’s what we saw in western CT and NYC).

I think the far northwest hills will struggle toward the 10″ mark (probably somewhere between 5-10.

The best chance for 20+ totals are going to be in the eastern half of the state and into eastern Mass.  MAJOR drifting in the storm. 3-4FEET in some locales.

I talked about the sharp cut off and other such forecasting issues with this storm on my Facebook page, click here and “like” to add those updates in your feed.CLICK HERE

Thanks for checking out my blog and stay safe.

Means the storm goes west and warmer air is pulled in from the south.

The data has been very consistent for a while now, on a big storm near the Christmas holiday.  The unfortunate thing (for snow lovers) is that this storm is what we call an “inside runner”.  That means the storm will go west of us and pull in warm air.

In fact, we may see temps near 60 with heavy rain, gusty winds and even a thunderstorm passing through Christmas eve night.

I expect the rain to peak overnight Christmas night.  This is an estimate from the HPC on how much rain can fall.  We’re talking 1-3 inches of rain across the state.

It turns windy and colder on Christmas Day, temps dropping through the 40s.  We could see a few flurries pass through, that’s about it.

Happy Holidays!

1-3″ of rain expected Tomorrow into tomorrow night.

As I posted last week and updated over the weekend, a strong coastal storm is expected to form and move up the coast.

Multiple advisories are in place, from Winter weather, coastl flood, flood watches, wind and more.  See ALL advisories here:  ADVISORIES/WATCHES/WARNINGS

The details:  The wind pattern will help to pull the storm close to the coast, that means we’ll see warmer ocean air dominate the storm.  A wintry mix will likely break out tonight, but trend toward rain quickly.

Wintry Mix: It sure is cold today, but expect the atmosphere to slowly warm.  We could start with some freezing drizzle tonight and some scattered areas of light snow breaking out.  As the heavier precip moves in expect a change to rain.  Before that happens, expect plenty of slippery travel during the overnight and likely for the start of the AM commute.

Rain:  Expect heavy rain, with 1-3″+ inches possible.  Check your sump pumps, this is the time of year we see big basement flooding with storms like this, thanks to frozen ground (the water has no where to go, except basements, streets, etc.)

Wind:  Wind gusts will peak during the Tuesday and Tuesday night time frame with gusts frequently 20-40 MPH.  Higher gusts are likely.

The storm (the upper level low) will basically stall across the northeast this week, that means plenty of clouds, on and off rain and snow showers.   By far, the biggest part of the storm will take place Tuesday and Tuesday night.

See the above map for expected rainfall.  Also, you may want to check the sump pumps, this time of year we have the issue of frozen ground and heavy rain.  That combo sends water into basements, etc.  Also a good time to clear storm drains of leaves.

It’s going to be a classic rain storm, with some heavy snow JUST up to our north.

Tuesday night:  Just as the cold starts to settle in, warmer air is going to make a move at us.  As that warmer air moves up and over the colder air at the surface we’ll see a wintry mix break out across the state.    At of this typing the warm air intrusion is pretty significant, but I can’t ignore the fact the cold is pretty impressive, too.  A light mix of snow and sleet and even some freezing rain is possible, but not going to be a widespread deal.  Many places won’t see any accumulation, a coating is possible though.

The above image shows snow and or a wintry mix breaking out across the state during the early evening.  Rain will likely fall along the shore.  This will go for a few hours with light snow and or mixed precipitation inland and a fairly quick change to rain along the coast.  Eventually, that change to rain and or some drizzle will work inland toward morning.  The biggest issues of slick roads will be north and west of Hartford.

Wednesday AM:  The warm air will be overtaking the state, rising through the 30s/40s inland and 50 or so along the shore.

Wednesday:  Remember how I told you the warm air will win out?  We’re eventually back to milder air by Wednesday afternoon.

The rest of the week: looks seasonable with temps in the lower to middle 40s.

\We’ll stop the roller coaster ride from warm to cold to warm… with a return to seasonable temps toward the end of the week.

Watching the data closely as a storm looks to form midweek.

Over the last couple of days some computer data has been hinting at a storm threat for the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe.

As of this morning, one computer model had a storm close by with accumulating snow into Thursday morning.  The (GFS) was farther out to sea.   As of this blog post (1130AM Saturday)  the GFS has backed closer to the coast.

Does that mean a snowstorm is a lock for Wednesday night?  Absolutely not.  A lot more has to come together, including storm intensity, track, etc.  A lot of detail to work out.

It’s worth mentioning because of the busy week of travel many have next week.  It has been a while since we had snow on Thanksgiving, but it’s not all too rare.

I will keep you posted as trends in the data begin to show something solid.  I won’t update this blog with every model run, as there will be fluctuations between now and then.   One way I forecast is by watching trends and ensembles to see how they do over a period of time. Some mets like to jump up and down with each model run.  That’s how bad information gets out.

Stay tuned…

Midnight to 2AM we will see more places transition to snow. I also want to draw your attention to a burst of heavier snow in the Worcester Hills. This heavier burst will likely extend into the northeast hills over the next couple of hours.

‘Tis the season..  We knew it had to happen sometime, and with the arctic invasion across the country, we knew our days were numbered.

This snow potential has been in the forecast for several days now.  As always, it’s always good to wait until you get closer to really fine tune the details.

This is not going to be a blockbuster storm.  A disturbance moving our way is going to throw some moisture back in our direction.  At the same time, colder air is building in.  It’s not THE best set up for snow being how warm it has been, but we should at least see our first flakes of the season

THE BREAKDOWN:

Precip breaks out tonight between 9PM and midnight.  At that point, some will start with some light snow (hills) others rain/wet snow mix.  Likely rain at the shore/valley locales.

Rain starts to break out across the state.
This model may be a bit overdone on the rain, but you can also see hill-towns already starting as snow or transitioning to snow fairly quickly.

Midnight to 2AM we will see more places transition to snow. I also want to draw your attention to a burst of heavier snow in the Worcester Hills. This heavier burst will likely extend into the northeast hills over the next couple of hours.

By 4 AM, the back edge of the precip will start to enter the western part of the state.
Still snowing, moderate with a burst east/northeast CT. The 395 corridor will likely go from rain to slush as you work from southern parts of the state north (quickly).
This area has the best chance at seeing 1-3″ of snow

Will it accumulate?

One model depiction of how much snow to expect. See explanation above.

HOW MUCH? 

–Northwest hills: can see an inch or 2.  Mostly grassy areas, but also some slick spots develop. Contractors you should have the equipment ready to go as there will likely be some sidewalks and parking lots needed treatments.

Valley (along I-91): Mostly grassy accumulation but a coating up to an inch is possible.  It’s possible that some side streets especially have some slick spots by the AM commute.

Shoreline: Pretty much the same as the valley, although mostly just mixed precip until the very end should keep pavement clear along I-95

Northeast Hills:  I like what i see in many of the models for snow growth potential and more intense precipitation (at least for a short time before tapering off).  1-2″ are likely, with one or two towns coming in with a 3″ amount.

As you can see, this is not a blockbuster.  Also, it should be tapering from west to east 4-6 AM.

The “first flakes” always cause a bit of excitement, although some towns may wake up a little underwhelmed.  At least we can ease into the winter season, rather than being clobbered out of the gate, right?

Oh, and by the way.  The next big weather stories are:  MORE cold for the weekend (highs in the 30s) and the next storm looks to bring some precip on Sunday night. into Monday.  Still lots of questions with that storm, it looks to bring some warm air (before more cold).  We’ll blog about that one later.

Please remember to follow and interact on twitter @DARRENSWEENEY or Facebook http://www.facebook.com/weatherdarrensweeney (or see the links to the right)

This was one computer model (GFS) showing hurricane Sandy.

If you’re not on twitter but would like to view what everyone is talking about today, check out my Storify timeline of what people are saying.  The big talk today is about Hurricane Sandy, which pummeled the east coast two years ago today.

If you’re not familiar with Storify, it is a way to collect media (on social media) and put it into one ‘story’ at a glance.  It’s a great way to see and read what people are talking about.  It’s a way to put all of those #’s to use.   Below is a collection of #HurricaneSandy #Sandy #HurricaneSandyAnniversary

Hurricane Sandy: What images people are sharing today

Fotobabble:  Hurricane Sandy and the “GFS”

The stubborn storm that plagued our weather this week, finally moves away.  We’re lucky this storm did not happen in December or later.  The position of the storm and the slow moving nature of it could have meant a lot of shoveling for us.

Beyond the storm, it’s looking mild for the end of October.  Take a look at the Jetstream map for the week ahead.  The yellow and orange colors indicate warming in the atmosphere.  Temps will generally be in the upper 60s to perhaps 70 degrees!

Enjoy those mild temps, because more and more data is supporting a blast of cold, wind and even some rain as we start November (which is next weekend).

The weather map below shows projected highs for next weekend, perhaps not getting out of the 40s with a bunch of wind!  it looks like the coldest air of the season timed with the start of November.

In the image above, keep an eye on the solid blue line.  That is the ‘540 thickness’ line.  That line generally indicates the column of air is below freezing and can be a first indicater of the rain/snow line.  That being said, that does not mean any precipitation showing up north of this lines means it will be frozen. There are several other factors that play into the temperature of the column of air above.  It is a good thing to look for on weather maps if you’re looking to eyeball for cold air.  Obviously that ‘540 line’ is almost to the Mid-Atlantic by next weekend.  Besides the coming cold, it could mean some rain for the Halloween holiday.

That means brrr for us!  Overall, looking a long range models into November, the end trend is for more mild than cold.  A little something for everyone as we transition into November.