A front settling to our south will act as the focus point for several rounds of snow

This set up is not the norm. The best I can compare this to is when a front stalls during the summer and we get a couple of days of on and off rain, some heavier bouts, some lighter.

Here’s the breakdown:

Today: A few periods of light snow or flurries (especially mid to late morning). Coating, inch? possible.
Tonight/Sunday: Same deal, inch or two likely, some town northern CT pick up 3″.
 Sunday night/Monday: A more impressive batch of moisture moves in, several inches of snow is likely. Right now, it appears the heaviest band will settle north of here (foot plus amounts) but it’s close by, Western Mass.
Still, light to moderate snow is possible for much of the day, which could mean another day of interrupted school and travel.  There could be ice mixing in at the shore as some warmer air tries to move in.
Several inches falling through the day (could top 6″ especially northern CT) doesn’t mean a big blockbuster storm, but we’re starting to ‘inch’ our way to roof concerns, even bigger parking problems in the cities and towns with massive snow piles.

Keep in mind, we’re going to have to keep a running tally.. if we get an inch saturday, couple Sunday and 6 ish Monday, add it all up and it’s impressive nonetheless (see map).

This is total snowfall after several rounds of snow, the heaviest coming late Sunday night into Monday

I simply typed in Blizzard of 2015 snowfall forecast, and this is what I got. No wonder the public is so confused.

While we catch a breather from our “blizzard” (and I only put it in quotes because some of us saw one, some of us did not), it’s time to start getting the word out on how to get a reliable forecast (cutting through the clutter).

MANY folks in CT are upset that we did not see 30 inches of snow.  Some are happy.  Some DID see 30″ of snow.

Social media went nuts (as usual) on the fact huge snow numbers that were being tossed around (even by the National Weather Service offices).   Who do you trust?

My best advice is to find someone that you can rely on (locally) that you know gives you accurate information.  This storm was NOT easy to forecast, although if you saw the forecasts from everyone it looked like a “lock”.  Some were irresponsible by broadcasting really huge numbers without context.  If you put out huge numbers, you should also explain the forecast challenges so people are aware.

I worked on Sunday morning and saw all of the numbers coming in. I wasn’t “sold” on the 30 inch snowstorm from NYC to Boston. I was sold on SOMEONE getting 30″‘s.  We HAD to get that information out there so people were prepared, but I specifically said the following:

For example:  My blog said this on Sunday after looking at the latest data (this was also my message on the air).

“Here’s the issue: I’m all about being honest and as clear as possible on social media, when you have a powerful storm they tend to be tightly wound up off the coast. Arctic air also helps to create a sharp “cut off” of heavy snow to little snow. We also have historically had to deal with “dry slots” of air wrapping into the storm here in southern New England cutting down on snow totals.

That being said, the storm has not even taken shape yet and won’t hit the coast until tomorrow morning. Until then we utilize the best data possible. Any slight deviation east or west will make a difference.”

It was the forecast as I saw it.  It goes back to the fact that weather is not an exact science.  Some treat it as it is… even some meteorologists treat it as such, which in my opinion isn’t responsible to the public.

I put that disclaimer on my forecast, not as an insurance policy, I did it because based on my experience, I have seen this happen before and there were some signals in the data that this was going to be the case.  I am NOT saying I am always right and I’ll be the first to say I’ve blown a forecast before. I’m not ashamed.  It happens.  The fact of the matter is, we get it right more than we get it wrong.   I got a few emails about how we nailed Saturday’s storm, but I got MANY responses about Tuesday not being right. It’s just like at a restaurant.  You get a bad meal or service and you complain.  Most of the time when you leave happy, you say nothing.  It’s the same thing with TV weather forecasting.

Find a couple of local people you trust, follow their blogs, follow their thoughts on Twitter and Facebook and you will be just fine.

The clutter on social media isn’t going to go away.  It’s going to get worse.  The irresponsible broadcasting by some isn’t going to disappear either (one local forecaster put a map on the air that advertised places like Middletown CT were going to get over 40 inches).  What?  It’s now up to YOU to cut through it all by cutting out the fat (per se) by only looking for the best sources.

It’s unfortunate that YOU the consumer have to do this, but it’s the only way.  EVERYONE has the ability to post forecasts (some of the these alarmist sites that look professional are run by 13 year olds).

Onto the next storm (which could impact Superbowl Sunday night and Monday .. btw.  more to come.

Remember to click wisely and stay informed.  it’s the only thing you can do when severe weather happens.

Darren

Here are the latest details on the storm:

The storm will be a bust in places like NYC (but we said all along there was going to be a SHARP cut off in the snow and that’s what we saw in western CT and NYC).

I think the far northwest hills will struggle toward the 10″ mark (probably somewhere between 5-10.

The best chance for 20+ totals are going to be in the eastern half of the state and into eastern Mass.  MAJOR drifting in the storm. 3-4FEET in some locales.

I talked about the sharp cut off and other such forecasting issues with this storm on my Facebook page, click here and “like” to add those updates in your feed.CLICK HERE

Thanks for checking out my blog and stay safe.

Means the storm goes west and warmer air is pulled in from the south.

The data has been very consistent for a while now, on a big storm near the Christmas holiday.  The unfortunate thing (for snow lovers) is that this storm is what we call an “inside runner”.  That means the storm will go west of us and pull in warm air.

In fact, we may see temps near 60 with heavy rain, gusty winds and even a thunderstorm passing through Christmas eve night.

I expect the rain to peak overnight Christmas night.  This is an estimate from the HPC on how much rain can fall.  We’re talking 1-3 inches of rain across the state.

It turns windy and colder on Christmas Day, temps dropping through the 40s.  We could see a few flurries pass through, that’s about it.

Happy Holidays!

1-3″ of rain expected Tomorrow into tomorrow night.

As I posted last week and updated over the weekend, a strong coastal storm is expected to form and move up the coast.

Multiple advisories are in place, from Winter weather, coastl flood, flood watches, wind and more.  See ALL advisories here:  ADVISORIES/WATCHES/WARNINGS

The details:  The wind pattern will help to pull the storm close to the coast, that means we’ll see warmer ocean air dominate the storm.  A wintry mix will likely break out tonight, but trend toward rain quickly.

Wintry Mix: It sure is cold today, but expect the atmosphere to slowly warm.  We could start with some freezing drizzle tonight and some scattered areas of light snow breaking out.  As the heavier precip moves in expect a change to rain.  Before that happens, expect plenty of slippery travel during the overnight and likely for the start of the AM commute.

Rain:  Expect heavy rain, with 1-3″+ inches possible.  Check your sump pumps, this is the time of year we see big basement flooding with storms like this, thanks to frozen ground (the water has no where to go, except basements, streets, etc.)

Wind:  Wind gusts will peak during the Tuesday and Tuesday night time frame with gusts frequently 20-40 MPH.  Higher gusts are likely.

The storm (the upper level low) will basically stall across the northeast this week, that means plenty of clouds, on and off rain and snow showers.   By far, the biggest part of the storm will take place Tuesday and Tuesday night.

See the above map for expected rainfall.  Also, you may want to check the sump pumps, this time of year we have the issue of frozen ground and heavy rain.  That combo sends water into basements, etc.  Also a good time to clear storm drains of leaves.

It’s going to be a classic rain storm, with some heavy snow JUST up to our north.

Tuesday night:  Just as the cold starts to settle in, warmer air is going to make a move at us.  As that warmer air moves up and over the colder air at the surface we’ll see a wintry mix break out across the state.    At of this typing the warm air intrusion is pretty significant, but I can’t ignore the fact the cold is pretty impressive, too.  A light mix of snow and sleet and even some freezing rain is possible, but not going to be a widespread deal.  Many places won’t see any accumulation, a coating is possible though.

The above image shows snow and or a wintry mix breaking out across the state during the early evening.  Rain will likely fall along the shore.  This will go for a few hours with light snow and or mixed precipitation inland and a fairly quick change to rain along the coast.  Eventually, that change to rain and or some drizzle will work inland toward morning.  The biggest issues of slick roads will be north and west of Hartford.

Wednesday AM:  The warm air will be overtaking the state, rising through the 30s/40s inland and 50 or so along the shore.

Wednesday:  Remember how I told you the warm air will win out?  We’re eventually back to milder air by Wednesday afternoon.

The rest of the week: looks seasonable with temps in the lower to middle 40s.

\We’ll stop the roller coaster ride from warm to cold to warm… with a return to seasonable temps toward the end of the week.