I can see it already in the many, many, tweets and Facebook posts.  There is a LOT of interest in this coming weekend’s storm threat.  Why?  Fans of snow have not had their fix of a classic storm riding up the coast yet and it’s already late January.

Yes, there is growing confidence in a storm.  The details are not yet defined.  At this point, it looks like a storm is likely and it likely takes a snow track.

Not only do we look at the models (euro and gfs) we look at the supporting solutions that accompany those models.  There is still a bit of a “spread” as to where that storm will end up.

As of this update (Monday PM) it doesn’t appear to be a block buster storm, but it does appear to have plenty of snow and wind.

The image above is what we call an “ensemble” forecast.  More than 50 forecasts are “averaged” into a consensus forecast.  As you can see, the consensus is pointing to a large east coast storm.  Again, the details still need to be worked out as we fine tune the forecast.

What we know: A strong storm develops off the mid-Atlantic during the day Saturday into Saturday night, likely ending by Sunday morning.

What do don’t know: How close does the storm track, this will dictate if we see major snow or a lighter snow storm.

When will we know?  We should have a better handle on the storm once we see a few more model runs and look at trends and other factors that could influence the amount of snow for the weekend.

Travel plans?  If you are traveling by car, stay tuned to the forecast as this could have a far reaching impact through the big cities down the coast.

Air travel the best advice is to call your local carrier, find out where your flight is coming from.  Is the plane going to be here Saturday morning?  Is it coming from Baltimore?  That can make a HUGE difference in whether your flight will be impacted.  Airlines won’t fly a plane into a nor’easter if it thinks it could get stuck here.  However, airlines will take off if it means getting a plane out of the path of the storm.  That’s why your originating flight information makes a difference.

Stay tuned for more updates.