I simply typed in Blizzard of 2015 snowfall forecast, and this is what I got. No wonder the public is so confused.

While we catch a breather from our “blizzard” (and I only put it in quotes because some of us saw one, some of us did not), it’s time to start getting the word out on how to get a reliable forecast (cutting through the clutter).

MANY folks in CT are upset that we did not see 30 inches of snow.  Some are happy.  Some DID see 30″ of snow.

Social media went nuts (as usual) on the fact huge snow numbers that were being tossed around (even by the National Weather Service offices).   Who do you trust?

My best advice is to find someone that you can rely on (locally) that you know gives you accurate information.  This storm was NOT easy to forecast, although if you saw the forecasts from everyone it looked like a “lock”.  Some were irresponsible by broadcasting really huge numbers without context.  If you put out huge numbers, you should also explain the forecast challenges so people are aware.

I worked on Sunday morning and saw all of the numbers coming in. I wasn’t “sold” on the 30 inch snowstorm from NYC to Boston. I was sold on SOMEONE getting 30″‘s.  We HAD to get that information out there so people were prepared, but I specifically said the following:

For example:  My blog said this on Sunday after looking at the latest data (this was also my message on the air).

“Here’s the issue: I’m all about being honest and as clear as possible on social media, when you have a powerful storm they tend to be tightly wound up off the coast. Arctic air also helps to create a sharp “cut off” of heavy snow to little snow. We also have historically had to deal with “dry slots” of air wrapping into the storm here in southern New England cutting down on snow totals.

That being said, the storm has not even taken shape yet and won’t hit the coast until tomorrow morning. Until then we utilize the best data possible. Any slight deviation east or west will make a difference.”

It was the forecast as I saw it.  It goes back to the fact that weather is not an exact science.  Some treat it as it is… even some meteorologists treat it as such, which in my opinion isn’t responsible to the public.

I put that disclaimer on my forecast, not as an insurance policy, I did it because based on my experience, I have seen this happen before and there were some signals in the data that this was going to be the case.  I am NOT saying I am always right and I’ll be the first to say I’ve blown a forecast before. I’m not ashamed.  It happens.  The fact of the matter is, we get it right more than we get it wrong.   I got a few emails about how we nailed Saturday’s storm, but I got MANY responses about Tuesday not being right. It’s just like at a restaurant.  You get a bad meal or service and you complain.  Most of the time when you leave happy, you say nothing.  It’s the same thing with TV weather forecasting.

Find a couple of local people you trust, follow their blogs, follow their thoughts on Twitter and Facebook and you will be just fine.

The clutter on social media isn’t going to go away.  It’s going to get worse.  The irresponsible broadcasting by some isn’t going to disappear either (one local forecaster put a map on the air that advertised places like Middletown CT were going to get over 40 inches).  What?  It’s now up to YOU to cut through it all by cutting out the fat (per se) by only looking for the best sources.

It’s unfortunate that YOU the consumer have to do this, but it’s the only way.  EVERYONE has the ability to post forecasts (some of the these alarmist sites that look professional are run by 13 year olds).

Onto the next storm (which could impact Superbowl Sunday night and Monday .. btw.  more to come.

Remember to click wisely and stay informed.  it’s the only thing you can do when severe weather happens.

Darren