Wednesday evening update:  Good evening folks:

The roads are a mess in many locations and we’re dealing with power outages in in towns that are now adding up the totals over a half a foot.

The rest of the evening:  If you’re seeing a change to rain/sleet inland, expect a gradual transition back to snow through the evening  Shoreline, it will be tough to get the cold air to change you over that far south,  but you too may see some snow before all is said and done.  NW HILLS, you keep with snow, thus adding up the most.

Some of you are saying “I live in the 4-8 zone and I don’t have much”, this is really elevation dependent stuff.  Some towns are going to get disappointing totals, but in a situation like this, we have to go with the worst numbers in zones, the map would be way too confusing to take elevation into account in forecasting amounts.  The best is to read detailed discussions like this one to explain the maps.  We do our best to cover every corner of the state.

When does it end?  The heaviest winds down this evening and shortly after midnight the precip will exit to the north and east.  By wake up time tomorrow, we’re talking about clouds, perhaps a lingering flurry, some slick spots from a refreeze overnight, otherwise a quiet Thanksgiving (besides the hum of snow blowers in some towns).

If you have to drive this evening, be safe!

 

 

 

Wednesday PM UPDATE:

We are closing in on the storm and fine tuning the details.

I have posted the total snow accumulation map.  Here’s the deal.

The colder air is currently moving in as of this typing.  That means many of you have already turned over to snow and a moderate to heavy accumulating snow.

The breakdown:  moderate to heavy snow accumulates and messes up roadways over the next few hours.  South and east and along the shore, a mix of rain/sleet/snow will make for mainly wet roadways.

The big issue:  Is going to be a changeover to sleet this afternoon.  IF the sleet starts early, we will be on the lower end of our forecast scale (above), if it comes in a little later, we will add a little more to the totals.  How much will you get?  Take a look at our map, if you flip over to sleet early and miss out on the burst of snow right now, expect lower totals.

This evening: Everyone will trend over to another period of snow and that’s when things will become extra slippery (after dark).  We could see some slick spots even down to the 95 corridor, but SE CT may stay all rain for the most part through this storm.

When does it end:  mix/snow/rain will start to wind down after midnight.  The sleet/rain mixture will trend back to snow during the evening and end after midnight (2-5AM tapering off).  If roadways improve when the mix begins this afternoon, things will get slick again late evening and overnight.

We will be on air all day, can’t watch? Follow me on twitter and facebook (see the boxes to the right) and I will keep you posted.

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Wednesday AM Update:  We still expect accumuulating snow, but I want to stress we will likely fall on the lower end 6-10″ NW Hills, 2-6″ Central CT, slushy accumulation SE CT, .  Most of what falls this morning will be rain (outside of the hill towns).  As we go through the day more and more snow will mix in and then we’ll transition over to some snow.

Hartford area: Likely around 3-4 inches of snow when all is said and done.

Hill towns:  Likely ending up 8-10″ marks

Southern and SE CT:  I expect the snow amounts to get lower as you move south and east.  Probably a slushy inch or two and in SE CT, likely mostly rain.

The bottom line is, the model trends overnight, a little warmer, not colder.  Think lower end totals of the map you see above… but still messy.

Tuesday PM Update:  Model data coming in shows a slight shift to the west.  Which means we’ll have to deal with more mild air working into the storm.   I would say this, while I would probably be inclined to lower amounts south of 84, I still think we are dealing with a bunch of moisture.  If this were January we would be talking over a foot easily for many.  My point is, I think we lose a lot to mixing, especially for the first part of the storm, but we should still have a few hours of moderate accumulating snow, especially into the evenings.  I also think some hill towns will come away with more.   This is a typical tough November storm to forecast (without arctic air in place).  Stay tuned for updates!

 

 

We have been talking about this since last week.  I have to be honest, the “Euro” was one of the models that first picked up on the storm.  All models are now in line with a messy Wednesday.

The Details: Snow or a mix begins Wednesday morning.  If you have errands to run it may be “precipitating” at 9AM but still passable.  We may begin with a burst of rain in many locations (outside of the hills)  but as the precipitation gets heavier, we pull down colder air and we see the changeover to snow.  We also see snowfall rates begin to pick up.

You will likely see people posting maps of 12+ inches of snow.  That’s because ‘on paper’ there is a ton of moisture being thrown our way.  But at the same time, there are factors working against “maximizing” snowfall.  Some data shows temps (outside of the hilltowns) flirting with freezing for the duration of the storm.  If this were January and there was a cold high to the north, we would be easily talking about over a foot of snow in many locations.

-Warmer temps (surface, aloft)

-Some original melting because of such warm weather today

-wetter snow (due to the warmer temps) but also some mixing (especially southern CT)

The map above shows the mixing issue which is possible in southern CT.   All of this said, we’re still confident in the snowfall forecast.  Could there be a litlte more in spots? yes, a little less where it really mixes, yes.  Overall, a plowable snowfall for much of the state.

The Bottom Line:

-It all begins 7-10AM Wednesday morning (burst of a mix, rain, sleet, snow) depends on where you are.  Errands should be OK first thing in the morning.

-After 11AM precipitation starts going over to snow in most places and picks up in intensity.

– You want to be at your destination by afternoon, as when the sun sets the snow begins to pile up and travel becomes difficult.

Snow will end between Midnight- 3AM, Therefore, besides some shoveling and clean up for Thursday (and the typical wet sloppy roads)  Thanksgiving looks cold, breezy with clouds and sun mixed.   The Manchester Road Race:  Crews will have a lot of time to clean up the roads before runners hit the pavement.

If there are changes, I will post them here.  May the holiday rush begin (early) …